Market Morning Huddle – 3 Feb 2016 – Oil Up, Positive Jobs Number

News Driver: (8:40am) North American markets set to open higher today with the release of positive jobs data. The ADP private sector added 205,000 jobs.

Oil is trading higher this morning +2.2% on the back of the API data released last night printing a better than expected number of a 3.837M build vs the forecast of 4.800M barrels. Better than expected as the number was less than forecast signalling a small drop in supply (small victories:)

S&P Futures down +0.4%
Nasdaq Futures down +0.2%
Dow Futures down +0.3%

Today’s action is a WEAK FORM RISK ON leaning to the strong side if the Nasdaq can start to out-perform. (higher risk assets being bought defensive assets under-perform or are being sold)

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Market Morning Huddle – 2 Feb 2016 – Oil Crumbles

News Driver: North American markets set to open lower again today. Oil continues to be driving the markets with WTI currently down (-4%). Overseas earnings misses from major Oil player BP and UBS also shook the confidence of the markets.

(8:23am)
S&P Futures down 0.8%
Nasdaq Futures down0.8%
Dow Futures down 0.8%

Today’s action is a WEAK FORM RISK OFF (higher risk assets being sold defensive assets out-perform). Emerging markets closing in mixed leaning risk-off. Eurozone in the red with the DAX -1.4% and Euro Stoxx 50 -1.8%

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Market Recap – 1 Feb 2016

We entered the day with a weak form risk off tone as discussed in the Morning Huddle. Oil remained weak throughout the day closing down 6.8%. North American markets gapped down at the open but slowly grinded higher throughout the day. Closing above the 1928-1921 watch out point but still just below the 1950 resistance structure. 

2016-02-01_eodrecap

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Intra-Day Action Journal – SPY Late Day Breakout – 1 Feb 2016

Here’s today intra-day action report. I was able to make a small profit trading the late day breakout on SPY. Keep in mind that the risk ladder was weak form risk off and most breakouts and trade-able plays would fail.
The Risk Ladder measures risk sentiment. Risk off implies higher risk assets are being sold. While defensive assets are outperforming. Weak form indicates mixed or bifurcated sentiment.

The Risk Ladder measures risk sentiment. Risk off implies higher risk assets are being sold. While defensive assets are outperforming. Weak form indicates mixed or bifurcated sentiment.

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Morning Market Huddle – 1 February 2016

Good morning,

News Driver: North American markets set to open lower to start February. Sentiment shifts after weak Chinese manufacturing data led the Chinese CSI 300 down over 1.5% and weak Oil futures down 3.6% (as I write this).

S&P Futures down 0.7%
Nasdaq Futures down 0.5%
Dow Futures down 0.7%

Into today’s open look to see a weak form RISK OFF tone to equities globally. BOJ Kuroda’s surprise interest rate cut created a small rally Friday but the reality of China’s problems and slowing global growth can’t be fixed with Japanese stimulus.

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