Market Morning Huddle – Flight to Safety Continues – 9 Feb 2016
News Driver: U.S. stock index futures were lower on Tuesday. Investors continue to move to safer assets (flight to safety) amid increasing concerns of a sustained slowdown in global economic growth. Global markets were lower, led by a fall in European bank stocks.
S&P Futures: -1.1%
Nasdaq Futures: -1.5%
Dow Futures: -1.1%
Oil Futures: -0.8%
Today’s action is a WEAK FORM RISK OFF (higher risk assets being sold with money flows to defensive assets) that has better odds of the S&P 500 holding above 1,850-1,842 (support) into the close.
Market Morning Huddle – Global Slowdown Fears – 8 Feb 2016
News Driver: Global economic slowdown continues to worsen. Investor fear is rising and VIX levels remain elevated.
$VIX as measured by VXX short term VIX futures is set to open higher this morning with a 27.50 reading nowhere near a panic level but a good measure of the overall concern in the markets.
U.S. stocks are coming off Friday’s massive tech-led selloff that pushed the Nasdaq to its lowest close since October 2014. Tech stocks were again among the top losers in pre-market trading on Monday.
S&P Futures: -1.2%
Nasdaq Futures: -1.9%
Dow Futures: -1.1%
Oil Futures: -1.5%
Today’s action is a STRONG FORM RISK OFF (higher risk assets being sold with money flows to defensive assets) it is transitioning to a weaker-form risk off as we get closer to the cash open of 9:30am EST. Markets have formed a base and moved up slightly.
Market Morning Huddle – Jobs Data Disappoints – 5 Feb 2016
News Driver: (8:40am) Today is all about the jobs data. Nonfarm Payrolls missed with a 151k jobs print vs the forecast of 190k. The Unemployment rate came in at 4.9% vs an expected 5%.
The monthly data set is seen as one of the most important economic updates. It indicates the strength of the labor market and helps the Fed determine whether the economy is strong enough to cope with an interest rate increase.
Oil is lower after the jobs data. It been higher earlier in the morning due to a weaker US dollar but that has also reversed -0.2%
S&P Futures -0.2%
Nasdaq Futures -0.2%
Dow Futures -0.2%
Into the open this morning with the pre-Non-Farm-Payrolls data we see the market as highly mixed. The market’s initial reaction has been “risk-off” to the news, suggesting a mild “loss-of-faith” in the US economy; odds for a March rate hike are now even lower but that is mostly priced in.
MID-LONG TERM (Weeks-To-3Months+): Bearish
(STILL IN FOCUS) Yesterday the S&P closed at 1915 as expected still below the 1928-1921 resistance structure but above the 1880-1870 support floor. If the S&P 500 breaks back below 1,880-1,870 (a key support floor), and if the Crude Oil (WTI) reverses back below $30 aggressively. This market has more downside risks than upside potential in the mid-to-longer-term. Look to De-risk long positions with rallies unless you can stomach the volatility. We may very well look back at this time as the start of the Bear market. Be ready for anything.
SHORT TERM (Days-To-Weeks): Bullish
We enter the week with a HOLD on short term Swing and Positions trades. If the S&P 500 breaks 1928-1921 and HOLDS below that a move closer to SELL for shorter term positions is a good idea. A break below 1880-1870 for the S&P 500 suggests the “bounce” is in jeopardy and likely over and a move to de-risk is the better option.
S&P 500: As the market settles down from the news (8:40am EST), we see the S&P 500 off the pre-market lows -0.5%, Nasdaq -0.6%, Russell 2K -0.7%
TSX: With Oil flattening out versus yesterday likely to turn negative and Gold now in mildly negative territory combined with a weak-form risk-off tone to equities globally, we anticipate the TSX to remain under resistance of 12,810-12,755 into the open with better odds to under-perform and print mildly negative into the close.
Bonds/Gold: Defensive assets heading back to flat or slightly negative versus yesterday’s close (TLT -0.15%, Gold -0.2%).
Oil: $31.63(8:51AM): Levels to watch are $31.50 -$31.00 support and $32.80 resistance
Economic Calendar: Nonfarm Payrolls (Jan) missed with 151k vs the 190k forecast. However the Unemployment rate is now at an 8 year low with a 4.9% reading vs the expected 5%
For a review of the rest of today’s economic data visit the economic calendar here.
Earnings: Stocks to watch include Estee Lauder $EL, Moody’s $MCO and Tyson Foods $TSN which has already reported a strong beat and is up pre-market.
For a complete list of today’s earnings visit the earnings page on our site.
Market Morning Huddle – Bank of England Cuts Growth Forecast – 4 Feb 2016
News Driver: (8:40am) North American markets set to open lower today with the comments made by BOE Governor Carney to cut the growth forecast:
Global growth has fallen back further over the past three months as emerging economies have generally continued to slow and as the U.S. economy has grown less than expected, – BOE Governor Carney
Futures were up prior to 7am EST and immediately reversed. Oil is lower by -1.2%
*UPDATE: Oil starting to move up. Currently trading at $33.35 (9:25am EST). The Markets have started to move up in tandem. It should be another interesting day.
S&P Futures -0.5%
Nasdaq Futures -0.6%
Dow Futures -0.5%
Today’s action is a WEAK FORM RISK OFF tone to global equities (higher risk assets being sold defensive assets out-perform). Europe (EFA) and Emerging markets (EEM) are holding up better.
Intra-Day Action Journal – 3 Feb 2016 -Strong SPY Rally
I was stopped out twice early in the morning but more than made up for it later in the day. Use your stops and keep the losers small when day trading. If the pattern didn’t trigger don’t stick around and wait for moving averages to cross. Price tells you everything you need to know.