Pre-Market: Into the open we see a mixed sentiment in global equities but leaning risk-on
MID-LONG TERM (Weeks-To-3Months+): Bearish
If the S&P 500 breaks back below 1,880-1,870 (a key support floor), and if the Crude Oil (WTI) reverses back below $30 aggressively. This market has more downside risks than upside potential in the mid-to-longer-term. Look to De-risk long positions with rallies unless you can stomach the volatility.
SHORT TERM (Days-To-Weeks): Bullish
Entering this week higher risk long side positions were on play with the deeply oversold technical bounce that started January 20th, 2016. S&P 500 (SPY), Nasdaq (QQQ), Russell 2K (IWM), Int’l Developed (EFA), Emerging Markets (EEM) and TSX (XIC).
We remain in HOLD mode on these positions into the open, looking for a momentum break above 1,928-1,921 on the S&P 500.
News Driver: Asian markets plunged again after China sunk more than 6% to 13 month lows. Oil continues to drive the markets and rallied off $29 support. North American markets in “wait and see” mode for tomorrows 2pm FOMC rate meeting.
S&P 500: +0.35% with moves largely in tandem from the Nasdaq and Russell 2K. I anticipate the S&P 500 to open into and hold support of 1,880-1,870 which implies the HOLD decision for short and mid-to-longer-term positions on both sides of the border.
TSX: Open into support of 12,185-12,145 with better odds to hold above this level into the close; this doesn’t imply the BUY decision
Bonds/Gold: TLT- defensive assets are still “holding-up” and getting a mild bid into the open (TLT +0.05%, Gold +0.75% – both in resistance and both expensive and more likely to under-perform in today’s trade).
Gold is catching a small bid with the USD weakness. Long term downtrend is still intact with strong US dollar and low inflationary pressures. Next resistance structure is $1150 support @ $1070.
Oil: Rallied off the $29 pivot low overnight resistance to watch is $31.50 with the next major pivot at $32.70. The US dollar is weakening today which will be supportive to oil throughout the day. API inventory numbers come out at close today
Yellen more likely kicks the can down the road on the next US Rate hike (weakening the USD and supporting a bid to commodities, at least technically).
Vix: Volatility is still structurally higher than most of 2015 but is lower pre-market (-1%).
Economic Calendar: Some minor data points today. The most significant is CB Consumer Confidence at 10am.Check the Market Insiders Club economic calendar on the site under investing tools.
Earnings: Busy day for earnings today. Check our site earnings calendar for a complete list. Here are a few big names to watch. MMM, AAPL, CNI, COH, GLW, DD, JNJ, LMT, PG, GWW
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