News Driver: North American markets set to open lower again today. Oil continues to be driving the markets with WTI currently down (-4%). Overseas earnings misses from major Oil player BP and UBS also shook the confidence of the markets.
S&P Futures down –0.8%
Nasdaq Futures down –0.8%
Dow Futures down –0.8%
Today’s action is a WEAK FORM RISK OFF (higher risk assets being sold defensive assets out-perform). Emerging markets closing in mixed leaning risk-off. Eurozone in the red with the DAX -1.4% and Euro Stoxx 50 -1.8%
News Driver: North American markets set to open lower to start February. Sentiment shifts after weak Chinese manufacturing data led the Chinese CSI 300 down over 1.5% and weak Oil futures down 3.6% (as I write this).
S&P Futures down 0.7%
Nasdaq Futures down 0.5%
Dow Futures down 0.7%
Into today’s open look to see a weak form RISK OFF tone to equities globally. BOJ Kuroda’s surprise interest rate cut created a small rally Friday but the reality of China’s problems and slowing global growth can’t be fixed with Japanese stimulus.
News Driver: Bank of Japan cuts interest rates, ECB inflation inline and US GDP not as bad as expected.
Into today’s open Bank of Japan Kuroda is creating risk-on (temporarily) by going NIRP (negative interest rates -0.1% on excess bank reserves), ECB Inflation metrics printing Goldilocks (Core +1% vs forecast +0.9%), and Q4 2015GDP for the US slightly missing forecast (better than market was expecting) +0.7% vs forecast of +0.8%
Yellen disappointed markets yesterday not being as dovish and defacto implying the move in Dec 2015 was spooking investors. The statement does lower odds of a March 2016 rate hike, but on the basis of a global slow down.
Read last nights Market Re-cap for more details
The markets sold off after the announcement but did not break major support floors, the S&P 500 held above 1,880-1,870 and we maintained the HOLD decision for mid-to-longer-term positions into yesterday’s close.
News Driver: Oil and earnings will be the focus today as we enter another heavy earnings day today. European markets are down moderately between -.6% and -1.5%. Asian markets had some choppy trading and closed slightly down with Hang Seng up +.75%. China was the laggard again down -2.61%
Pre-market we see a mixed sentiment towards equities, leaning risk-off in the Eurozone, and leaning risk-on in North America.
Here’s a peak at the eMini Futures contract….
Nothing has changed since yesterday. The markets are still in play short term after a solid up day the S&P 500 closed at 1903 well above our watch out area.
News Driver: North American markets in “wait and see” mode for today’s 2pm FOMC rate meeting. Oil is trading at $30.50 as I write this and is trading in a range waiting for the 10:30am Crude Oil Inventories report.
European markets are down slightly and Asian markets bounced back nicely overnight (excluding China, it was flat)
Into the open we see a weak-form risk-off tone to equities globally, anticipating an indecisive trade leading into Yellen’s 2pm (EST) Monetary Policy announcement.